Summary:
The diplomatic spat between Cambodia and Thailand took center stage
during the Ambassador's meeting with Prime Minister Hun Sen November 8.
Hun Sen confirmed that former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
would arrive in Cambodia on November 10 and would deliver a speech to
Cambodian officials at the Ministry of Economy and Finance on November
12. He also confirmed that, aside from the diplomatic friction, tensions
were low and military commanders remained cooperative at the border,
and that he would continue to monitor Thailand's reaction and would
respond in kind to each diplomatic downgrade that the Abhisit government
initiated. We expect Hun Sen will now shift largely from an offensive
to a defensive position. He is of course hopeful that the Thai will
refrain from taking precipitous actions, but he is prepared to match any
Thai action with a Cambodian reaction. In that context, Hun Sen will
likely be both confident and relaxed during the upcoming Singapore
meetings, amenable to suggestions that a de-escalation of rhetoric and a
re-engagement between Cambodia and Thailand is in the best interests of
the region as well as the parties. End summary.
¶2. (C)
In raising this issue during a meeting previously scheduled to discuss a
broad range of other issues (septel), the Ambassador reaffirmed that
both Cambodia and Thailand should work to reduce political tensions and
to refrain from acts that could be considered provocative. Hun Sen
replied that military cooperation was proceeding very well at the border
) "there is no chaos," he explained, and "things remain very quiet." He
also said there is no need "to keep so much force there" and confirmed
press reports that he had ordered the 911 Brigade paratrooper unit be
recalled to Phnom Penh and that he would do his best to ensure that Thai
and Cambodian commanders continued to cooperate and avoid any military
confrontation. If the situation remained calm, Hun Sen added he would
also recall Division 1, which would reduce the Cambodian military
presence at the border to normal, pre-July 2008, levels. Hun Sen
reiterated that he wanted to "build up mutual trust between the armies,"
and that he hoped that Thai military commanders would continue to
cooperate and work to "reduce tensions.
¶3. (C) Hun Sen
underscored that Thaksin would travel to Cambodia from "another ASEAN
country," but that "the Thai don't care" about the purported double
standard that has led the Thai government to criticize Hun Sen so
publicly while ignoring Thaksin's presence elsewhere in the region.
(Note: Hun Sen did not cite the name of the country where Thaksin was
reportedly currently residing. End Note.). "Whether Thaksin comes or
not," Hun Sen explained, it remains the "business of Cambodia" to engage
him as an economic adviser during the current economic downturn. Hun
Sen confirmed what he has said publicly: that the RGC would not "accept"
any extradition request from Thailand as this case was "purely
political" and the Thai-Cambodian extradition agreement was based on
customary international law that clearly allowed extraditions to be
rejected based on political context. And although he said he expected
the Thai government to deliver a "letter of extradition," he said that
the RGC had already prepared a reply rejecting the request.
¶4.
(C) Because military relations at the border remained cooperative, Hun
Sen said that the principal conflict with Thailand was diplomatic and
that the public pronouncements from various Thai officials to downgrade
diplomatic relations between Thailand and Cambodia reflected "internal
confusion" within the Thai government. After Thaksin's arrival, Hun Sen
said he would simply monitor the Thai reaction day by day. "There are
many in the Thai government who are not acting under orders of the Thai
Prime Minister," Hun Sen stated, pointing to the example of the Thai
army, which "had to obstruct the yellow shirt protesters" sent from
Bangkok from reaching Preah Vihear on September 19. In fact, Hun Sen
averred that the Thai business interests in Sisaket Province were
"already complaining" and would suffer most if Thailand prolonged and
exacerbated the diplomatic dispute by closing the border with Cambodia
in a "frenzied reaction" to Thaksin's visit. He added that the RGC had
already sent a message to Bangkok that it was indeed the right of
Thailand to close the border but, unlike in 2003 when the Thais PHNOM
PENH 00000832 002 OF 003 allowed goods to continue to cross, he would
respond by directing that Thai goods would also be barred from crossing
into Cambodia if Thailand did so.
¶5. (C) Again referring
to perceived dissension among key leaders of the current Thai
government, Hun Sen claimed that "not everyone is on good terms" and
that Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban and Minister of National
Defense General Prawit Wongsuwan did not agree with Prime Minister
Abhisit and Foreign Minister Kasit on this issue. "I met with them
here," Hun Sen noted, and "spent three hours with them in Hua Hin" on
October 23, where their lack of support for the direction of the current
Thai government was clear. Moreover, Hun Sen said that he had been
contacted by unspecified Thai Senators and other members of the
government to begin the work of diplomatic "remediation."
¶6.
(C) As previewed by the Prime Minister, Thaksin's private commercial
charter arrived at the military side of Phnom Penh's airport at about
9:30 a.m. on November 10, originating from Mumbai. Although local and
international press viewed the arrival from a distance, Ministry
spokespersons were guarded in their comments about the visit. Thaksin's
car entered a motorcade secured by Hun Sen's bodyguard unit and departed
for a lunch at Hun Sen's residence in Takhmao, south of the capital. At
the end of the day, MFA spokesman Koy Kuong told reporters that no Thai
request for extradition had yet been officially received, although
others report that an extradition request from the Thai government has
been already transmitted. Thaksin is reported to be staying in a villa
close to the Cambodian Peoples Party headquarters not far from the Royal
Thai embassy. Unconfirmed reports indicated that Thaksin is scheduled
to depart Cambodia on November 13. Separately, in response to the
Ambassador's inquiry during a meeting November 10, Commerce Minister
Cham Prasidh commented that he was very familiar with the popularity
polls recently conducted in Thailand and did not think they were the
least bit credible. He added that he thought nothing Thaksin did or said
in Cambodia would have much effect on the domestic situation in
Thailand.
¶7. (C) Comment: Hun Sen remained thoughtful and
calm throughout his discussion with the Ambassador, and there was no
hint of the provocative rhetoric that he sometimes displays in public or
private. In the weeks since Hun Sen's October 23 announcement that he
would appoint Thaksin as an adviser, he has been most concerned about
increases in border military activity; he now seemed pleased with the
extent of military cooperation and believes that his decision to reduce
the number of troops will contribute to continued cooperation. With that
in place, Hun Sen has now turned his attention to the diplomatic front
and seemed focused predominantly on how much and how quickly the Thai
would erode diplomatic relations in what he believes is an effort to
attract public support for a regime that can command long term support
of neither the military nor a majority of the people. While it remains
to be seen whether he has miscalculated in that assessment, it is
apparent that he has received indications from some Thai officials that
he has not. But, more importantly, none of that seems to matter much to
the Prime Minister. Hun Sen has clearly calculated that whatever
diplomatic downgrades are initiated by the Abhisit government do not
outweigh the benefits that Hun Sen's friendship and support to Thaksin
could provide to Cambodia both now and in the future. He seemed
similarly uninterested in ASEAN or international reaction to the spat
and did not directly respond to the Ambassador's inquiry about the
message he intended to send to ASEAN or the international community
about his actions.
¶8. (C) As much of the press and other
reporting has suggested, Hun Sen's motivations are best described as
personal political moves designed to attract perceived benefits to
himself and Cambodia and to disarm his foes in the current Thai
government. As this continues to play out, we expect Hun Sen will shift
largely from an offensive to a defensive position. He is of course
hopeful that the Thai will refrain from taking precipitous actions, but
he is prepared to match any Thai action with a Cambodian reaction every
step of the way, as he has done with the reciprocal recall of
Ambassadors. In the meantime, we expect the U.S. and others will find a
confident and relaxed Hun Sen during PHNOM PENH 00000832 003 OF 003 the
upcoming Singapore meetings amenable to suggestions that a de-escalation
of rhetoric and a re-engagement between Cambodia and Thailand is in the
best interests of the region as well as the parties themselves. End
Comment.
ทักษิณ - ฮุนเซน กับ อเมริกา..ว่าไงกันเรื่องน้ำมัน
Summary.
In the latest of a series of trade and investment related visits to
Cambodia, a delegation from the U.S.-ASEAN Business Council met May 9
with senior Cambodian government (RGC) officials, including the
Ministers of Commerce, Finance and Health. ConocoPhillips
representatives urged the RGC to resolve the dispute with Thailand on
the Overlapping Claims Area in the Gulf of Thailand. RGC officials
believed resolution would have to await elections and a new Thai
government. The Ambassador and the head of the Council's delegation,
Frances Zwenig, urged Cambodia to sign the bilateral debt agreement. The
U.S.-ASEAN Business Council's visit was another step toward greater
American commercial involvement in Cambodia and another indication of
the growing interest of U.S. business firms in establishing a presence
here.
¶2. (U) Building on the success of the first
U.S.-Cambodia meeting under the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement
and the April visit of a business mission of American firms based in
the region (Refs), the U.S.-ASEAN Business Council met with senior
Cambodian government (RGC) officials on May 9 to explore opportunities
for trade and investment. Led by Frances Zwenig, Counselor of the
U.S.-ASEAN Business Council, the delegation consisted of representatives
of ConocoPhillips Petroleum, Oracle, General Electric (GE), FedEx and
ITT Defense. They met with former Ambassador to the U.S. Roland Eng and
Minister of Transport and Public Works Sun Chanthol, the Ambassador, and
had office calls on Minister of Post and Telecommunications So Khun,
Minister of Commerce Cham Prasidh, Finance Minister Keat Chhon, Health
Minister Nuth Sokhom and MFA Secretary of State Kao Kim Hourn.
¶3.
(SBU) In each of the meetings, the ConocoPhillips representatives urged
the RGC to resolve the dispute with Thailand over the Overlapping
Claims Area in the Gulf of Thailand. Noting that their firm has held a
contract for exploitation of the area for nearly ten years, they asked
that enthusiasm for Chevron's petroleum discovery not be allowed to
lessen the urgency of resolving the dispute. Kao Kim Hourn told them
that the two governments had come very close to settling the dispute
just prior to the fall of the Thaksin government in Thailand. He said
they had agreed on a formula for dividing the revenue: 80% for Thailand
and 20% for Cambodia in the tier nearest Thailand, 50%-50% in the middle
and 20% for Thailand and 80% for Cambodia in the area closest to
Cambodia. He thought that an additional six months of negotiations would
have settled the matter. However, in Thailand's current disarray, he
said, there could be no resolution until after Thailand's elections and
the formation of a new government. Other interlocutors, including Cham
Prasidh and Keat Chhon, agreed that nothing could be accomplished until a
new government was formed in Thailand.
¶4. (U) GE
announced to the Health Minister that it would open an office in Phnom
Penh in the coming months. The office would focus on the sales and
repair of diagnostic equipment in the health field. The GE
representatives briefed the Minister on GE's program to sell refurbished
equipment in developing countries and asked that Cambodia consider
participating. They noted that GE's office could be used as a launching
point for GE in other sectors in which GE is involved, such as energy.
¶5.
(U) FedEx expressed appreciation to the Minister of Post and
Telecommunications for his flexibility in compromising on regulations
governing the courier service industry. The revisions accepted by the
Ministry had allowed the courier service industry to remain operational
in Cambodia. The firms in the industry have all registered, they said,
and were functioning without problems. The FedEx representatives also
thanked Commerce Minister Cham Prasidh for his role in convincing
Minister So Khun to compromise.
¶6. (U) Showing signs that
he was still recovering from a heart procedure that he underwent in
Paris in April, Prasidh provided the delegation with an overview of the
trade and investment climate in Cambodia. Reviewing the establishment of
the garment industry, Prasidh stressed the need for Cambodia to
outperform its neighbors in order to remain competitive. He explained
the private sector forum that PHNOM PENH 00000668 002.2 OF 002 brought
the private sector together with government in order to resolve policies
and problems that inhibited business. In response to a suggestion that
Cambodia could use the latest technology to computerize its "One Stop"
investment service, Prasidh said that other ASEANs were more technically
advanced than Cambodia. At best, Cambodia could become a model for the
second tier of developing countries in ASEAN like Laos and Burma.
¶7.
(SBU) Frances Zwenig asked Finance Minister Keat Chhon for an update on
the status of negotiations on the bilateral debt. The Ambassador urged
Keat Chhon to move forward and accept the agreement as it now stood.
Further discussions were unlikely to get Cambodia a better deal. Keat
Chhon responded that the RGC had been considering sending a team to
Washington or inviting the USG to have a team visit from Washington.
¶8.
(U) Comment: Coming on the heels of the successful first TIFA meeting
in February and the American Business Mission in April, the visit of the
U.S.-ASEAN Business Council was another step forward toward greater
U.S. commercial involvement in Cambodia. It was also another indication
of the growing U.S. business interest in Cambodia. Increasing numbers of
American firms are beginning to sense that Cambodia has real potential.
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